russia’s Large Businesses Are Warning of a Wave of Defaults

Representatives of the russian union of industrialists and entrepreneurs (rspp) have publicly announced a systemic deterioration in the financial condition of large businesses in russia, directly linking it to the government’s current economic policy.

According to the organization, in 2025, 62% of civilian enterprises recorded a decline in profits, 66% reduced investments, and 15% completely froze projects. At the same time, 72% of companies, including state-owned corporations, reported an increase in accounts receivable. Against this background, some businesses are already preparing for staff cuts in the second half of 2026. rspp vice president aleksandr murychev has warned of an exacerbation of the “liquidity and non-payment crisis”, the depletion of enterprise resources and increase in the risk of bankruptcies.

The rspp, whose leadership includes billionaires from the Forbes list, has effectively formulated a list of systemic complaints against the government and the central bank. Businesses consider the discount rate to be excessive even after it was lowered to 15.5%, as tight monetary policy is holding back investment and pushing companies into default. In January 2026, there were 51 cases of debt default, with the amount of missed payments having doubled year-on-year – to $44 million.

Businesses cite the lack of coordination among economic authorities as a separate problem: parallel decisions by the ministry of economic development, the ministry of finance, and the central bank, focused on their own macroeconomic indicators, create a vacuum in investment strategy. Additional pressure is created by increased taxes, expensive loans, and limited access to financing, which forces companies to accumulate liquidity instead of expanding production.

At the end of the year, 21 out of 28 priority industries recorded a decline, while only enterprises related to the military-industrial complex showed growth, indicating further militarization of the economic structure. Current dynamics indicates the accumulation of deep imbalances in the corporate sector. Without a reduction in the cost of capital and a recovery in demand, the wave of defaults, layoffs, and bankruptcies in 2026 will only intensify, while public criticism of the rspp demonstrates the growing internal pressure of large businesses on the economic policy of the rf.